Vikings Uninterested in Sam Darnold Long Term but Franchise Tag Remains on Table
The Minnesota Vikings’ 2024-25 season officially ended last night with a tough 27-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. It was a disappointing way to wrap up a year that had so much promise, especially after a 14-win season, one of the best in franchise history, second only to their all-time record in 1998 (15-1).
Now the offseason has officially kicked off, and the Vikings have some big decisions ahead. With one of the best cap situations in the league, they’re in a great spot, but that also brings up some important questions. Maybe the biggest one is this: Will Sam Darnold be back in 2025, and what is his value now after the season?
Will the Minnesota Vikings keep Sam Darnold in 2025?
The Minnesota Vikings brought in Sam Darnold on a one-year deal after choosing not to re-sign Kirk Cousins. Things also took a turn when their first-round pick, quarterback J.J. McCarthy, went down with a season-ending injury during the preseason. With McCarthy sidelined, Darnold quickly stepped into the role of QB1.
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He definitely surpassed expectations, leading the team to 14 wins. However, when it came to the big moments, especially with a chance to send the Vikings to the divisional round two weeks in a row, he couldn’t come through. Now, his future is up in the air.
What does this mean for Darnold moving forward? Will the Vikings re-sign him, use the franchise tag, or will another team step in and scoop him up? After last night’s performance, you’d have to think his value took a hit either way.
Local insider Darren Wolfson shared his take on the situation during his appearance on SKOR North today. Here’s what he had to say:
“To me, there are more quarterback-needy teams than there are competent quarterbacks available. I still think the franchise tag is on the table, but it’s not as clear-cut as it was back on December 30 or 31.”
“Put it this way, I’m not saying it’s off the table. I need to do a deeper dive on it, Judd. Right now, I don’t know the answer either way. I’m not sure they know the answer, so it’s hard for me to say what exactly they’ll do. But as emotional as it is on this Tuesday, January 14th, I’m not ready to declare that there’s no way they’ll use the franchise tag on him.“
While Wolfson believes the franchise tag is still on the table, it’s definitely not as clear-cut as it was two weeks ago. He also mentioned later that if the Minnesota Vikings do tag Darnold, they’ll likely start fielding trade offers right away.
“Trust me, the Vikings will know by March 4th or March 5th, right up until the deadline, whether they’re going to slap the franchise tag on him. They’ll know—trust me, they’ll know in that moment—if there’s a trade to be completed.“
“They’re not going to put the franchise tag on him and then say, ‘Oh, OK, now let’s begin discussions. Do we think we can find a trade partner?’ No, trust me. By March 5th, the Vikings are going to have a very clear picture of the trade market. If there is a market, they’ll know exactly what it looks like.”
“While I don’t have the answer right now, and I don’t think the Vikings do either, trust me—by March 5th, there will be full clarity. If the Vikings use the franchise tag, expect a trade soon after to get things done.”
Wolfson thinks the Vikings might use the franchise tag on Darnold if there’s a trade market for him, then trade him away while sticking with McCarthy. It seems like the Vikings aren’t looking to sign Darnold long-term, which makes sense given the situation.
With several teams on the lookout for a quarterback this offseason, the Vikings find themselves in a strong position of leverage. However, it’ll be interesting to see how things play out with the draft and free agency. This is definitely something to keep an eye on.
How much is QB Sam Darnold worth now?
When Sam Darnold hits the open market (if the Vikings dont franchise tag him), it will be very interesting to see the teams that throw money at Darnold, and how much did these last two games really affect his upcoming contract?
Related: Minnesota Vikings Pending Free Agents Entering 2025 NFL Offseason
According to Spotrac, a site known for breaking down contracts and using analytics to forecast future deals, Darnold’s projected contract before last nights game was set at four years, $218 million, which would work out to $54.7 million per year.
After the playoff loss, his projected contract took a hit, dropping by almost one-third. Now, they’re predicting a four-year deal worth $160 million, which breaks down to $40.1 million per year. Even with the drop, Spotrac still ranks him as the most valuable quarterback in this year’s free-agent class.
While the recent poor play may eliminate Sam Darnold from the #Vikings plans in 2025, he remains the top pending free agent QB.
— Spotrac (@spotrac) January 14, 2025
If we're evaluating him as a mid-range starting QB going forward, Darnold now projects toward a 4 year, $160M contract in our system. pic.twitter.com/PZspzRndwI
This is something I can almost guarantee the Vikings won’t pay, at least not for four years, maybe just one. That’s why the franchise tag makes the most sense, which would likely cost around $40 million for the year.
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This makes Wolfson’s point even more valid. The Vikings need to seriously consider tagging Darnold and then flipping him for a trade right away. But first, they have to get a sense from around the league on whether teams are actually interested in pursuing Darnold.
This offseason is shaping up to be an exciting one for Vikings fans. You could even say it’s a good problem to have, considering the team has plenty of depth and leverage. Time will tell how everything plays out.
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