What Does Raiders QB Trade Mean for Vikings, Sam Darnold?

The Minnesota Vikings are yet to choose their quarterback for the 2025 season, and we may not know who will start under center in week one until Training Camp gets going. It could take even longer, depending on how JJ McCarthy looks coming off injury.

Raiders trade for Geno Smith; Seahawks interested in Sam Darnold

But while QB questions linger locally, the same can no longer be said in Las Vegas, after the Raiders traded a third round pick to the Seattle Seahawks Friday evening for 34-year-old former second round pick, Geno Smith, who is now expected to sign a multi-year deal worth $40-$45 million per year, once he lands in the desert.

Geno Smith is being traded to Las Vegas Raiders for a third round pick, per sources. pic.twitter.com/vmdvtueBgE

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 7, 2025

This trade officially rules out any chance of recent McCarthy trade rumors between the Raiders and Vikings coming true, not that dealing JJ was ever a realistic outcome in the first place. But this move between Vegas and Seattle shakes the market here in Minnesota, in more ways than one.

There was enough to unpack with this deal immediately upon its announcement, but before anyone had time to process what had happened, multiple reports were already breaking noting heavy interest from a now QB-less Seahawks, in former Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold.

Related: Schefter No Longer Buying Sam Darnold + Vikings Rumors

Now that Seattle is showing even more love for Sam than the Raiders were, it appears even less likely Darnold finds a depressed market next week when he hits free agency, meaning a return to the Vikings becomes even less likely.

QB Sam Darnold’s market has been all over the map the last 24 hours. Once it became known that Seattle was interested in trading with the Las Vegas Raiders last night for Geno Smith, Darnold’s market improved.

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) March 8, 2025

As Sam Darnold is set to become a free agent next week, he now is expected to have another option available to him: the Seattle Seahawks, who are trading Geno Smith to the Raiders.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 8, 2025

I wrote earlier Friday about the Raiders’ reported interest in JJ McCarthy, should recent reports tying Sam Darnold back to Minnesota on a long-term contract actually come true, something ESPN’s Adam Schefter believed was becoming less and less likely by the hour, when he spoke with KFAN’s Paul Allen this morning.

Geno Smith trade proves the Minnesota Vikings dropped ball on Sam Darnold

Then, there’s the compensation Seattle got in return for Geno Smith, a third round pick in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. You might remember, that’s the same compensation the Minnesota Vikings needed to get, in order to make a Sam Darnold tag and trade worth the hassle.

Because Kwesi & Co weren’t sure Sam could fetch that on the open market, if they tagged him, they instead decided to let him walk to free agency, in hopes of being rewarded a 2026 late 3rd round comp pick.

Report: Nobody Knows Who is Calling the Shots for Vikings

But if a middling mid-30’s QB like Geno Smith is worth a 3rd round draft pick, like he was traded for Friday, then whoever is running the Vikings should have gotten way more than that for a 27-year-old Darnold, coming off of an MVP season, and who has more arm talent in his right pinky than Smith does in his entire soul.

But no. Instead, the Minnesota Vikings will watch Sam Darnold negotiate with other teams starting Monday, where he will likely get a deal worth more than whatever Geno signs this weekend in Vegas, which he expects to be $40-$45 million per season. And it might even be Geno’s old team that swaps in Darnold.

Friday’s QB trade and rising interest in Sam Darnold also means that the MN Vikings will probably be on the hunt come Monday, for a competent veteran QB to pair with JJ McCarthy. Hopefully, Daniel Jones…?