Sunday’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings is likely for bragging rights, as top team in the NFL. The NFC North is the powerhouse of the league right now, but it’s Detroit and Minnesota at the top with Lions vs Vikings easily taking game of the week.
What’s so interesting about these two teams and how they match up? Minnesota’s defense has been phenomenal this season, and better than anyone at getting into the backfield. That holds true against opposing offenses in both the run and pass. No matter who ends up with the football, after it is snapped, the Vikings are on them fast.
Related: Why Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions is a DVOA Dream
That makes for a perfect matchup vs the well-oiled machine that is Detroit’s offense, which is led by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Styles make fights and this is a heavyweight bout. Let’s dive into the stats you need to know and their impact on the best matchup of week 7: Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
37.2- How many points Jared Goff’s QB rating drops when pressured
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff developed a reputation for thriving in a great environment, putting up MVP-caliber numbers as long as he’s got a strong supporting cast around him. When the play breaks down or the pocket collapses, that’s where the faults show.
It’s why Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams moved on from him and also why Detroit proved to be his perfect landing spot. Goff made tremendous strides in recent years, but some of his old habits remain.
Related: Minnesota Vikings Stats That Explain Undefeated Start
- Jared Goff stats vs Minnesota Vikings (2023): 110.7 QB rating, 73.6% completion rate, 3-0 TD-INT, 8.01 yards per attempt, 2 sacks taken, 2-0 record
Goff dominated the Vikings a year ago in the first season with Brian Flores as defensive coordinator. However, Minnesota’s pass rush has changed dramatically since these teams last faced off. Entering Week 7, the Vikings have the second-highest pressure rate (32.6 percent) in the NFL, a 10.7 percent improvement from last year.
| Jared Goff stats | QB Rating | TD% – INT% | YPA | Big-Time Throw % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Clean Pocket | 115.0 (2nd) | 6.4% – 1.8% | 9.1 (5th) | 3.5% (12th) |
| vs Pressure | 77.8 (13th) | 2.6% – 5.1% | 8.4 (4th) | 0% (Last) |
| vs Blitz | 112.8 (4th) | 6.9% – 6% | 12.1 (1st) | 5.2% (5th) |
However, Detroit is more well-equipped than just about any other NFL team to match up with this Vikings pass rush. The Lions offensive line is top-five in ESPN pass-block win rate and has allowed the fourth-fewest pressures (41) in the NFL this season, per PFF.
It’s also worth noting that if the Vikings’ defense blitzes – the highest blitz rate in the NFL (41.1 percent) – Goff thrives in those situations, which puts even more emphasis on Flores’ unique coverage looks in an attempt to confuse Goff when he’s under duress.
32 – Justin Jefferson’s yards per reception vs man coverage (1st in NFL)
Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the NFL and he’s proving it once more this season with a new quarterback. On the surface, this might seem like a bad matchup for the All-Pro wide receiver considering the Lions defense allowed the third-lowest QB rating (75.3) and ranks fourth in Defensive DVOA (-14.3 percent). Not so fast, my friend.
- Justin Jefferson stats vs man coverage – 2024 (PFF):
- 15 targets (9th)
- 7 receptions (24th)
- 224 rec yards (2nd)
- 32.0 yards per rec (1st),
- 2 touchdowns (T-4th)
- 6.05 yds per route run (1st)
- 132.6 QB rating w/targeted (4th)
Also Read: NFL defense rankings, see where Minnesota Vikings land
Under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, the Lions play a lot of man coverage. It’s an understandable approach, considering the talent Detroit has in their secondary. Playmaking safeties, Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch, are particularly impressive. Lions’ cornerbacks, however, have not looked as good (according to PFF).
| Player | Man Cov. % | Yards Allowed | PFF grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terrion Arnold | 40.2% | 89 (18 targets) | 40.7 |
| Carlton Davis III | 40.7% | 161 (18 targets) | 48.1 |
| Amik Robertson | 47% | 36 (10 targets) | 63.5 |
Jefferson will be the best wide receiver Detroit’s secondary faces all season. The Lions’ ability to keep JJ, Jordan Addison and (maybe TJ Hockenson?) covered, while in man, will decide how effective their pass rush can get on Sam Darnold.
With Aidan Hutchinson out, their secondary will have to be better, longer. That could prove to be a big problem, given how effective Kevin O’Connell’s plays are, when allowed to unfold properly.
48% – Percentage of Detroit Lions’ pressures that Aidan Hutchinson accounted for
Nobody roots for injuries, and this Lions vs Vikings matchup is made worse by the fact that Aidan Hutchinson can’t play. With that said, his absence has to be acknowledged. The Detroit Lions defense has been very good this year, but they just lost a Defensive Player of the Year favorite, and that’s not easy to replace.
- Detroit Lions pass rush stats (Pro Football Reference): 22 percent pressure rate (21st in NFL), 50 pressures (15th), 17 QB knockdowns (12th), 18 hurries (14th), 15 sacks (14th)
Related: NFL Week 7 predictions, including Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
- Aidan Hutchinson stats (Pro Football Reference): 24 pressures, 7 QB knockdowns, 9 hurries, 7 sacks
Detroit just lost 48 percent of its pressures, 41 percent of its QB knockdowns, 50 percent of its hurries and 47.6 percent of its sack production. In other words, they pretty much lost half of what has made their defensive line so effective in 2024.
There is no replacing that, in the aggregate, especially not this week. In fact, Minnesota no longer has to pay any sort of special attention to specific pass rushers. As mentioned, that should make life a lot easier for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold.
3rd – Lions’ rank in Rushing Success Rate vs Vikings’ rank in Rush Success rate allowed
While we focused on Goff and the passing attack atop this Lions vs Vikings preview, the thing we’re most excited to see is Detroit’s ground game against Minnesota’s run defense. It is the classic. In Week 7, we get to find out what happens when an unstoppable force collides with an immovable object.
Related: Week 7 fantasy rankings
| Rush YPG | Yards per Carry | Success Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions run game | 157.8 (4th) | 4.8 (8th) | 50% (3rd) |
| Vikings run defense | 67.2 (2nd) | 3.6 (2nd) | 34.1% (3rd) |
The Lions have the sixth-highest rate of run plays (50.3 percent) in the NFL this season and we could see them rely on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs even more to chew up the clock. It is worth noting here that Minnesota has faced a majority of its opponents to turn to the passing game early, demonstrated by the lowest opponents’ rushing play rate (27.11 percent) faced this season.
This game has to be the most intriguing matchup on the entire NFL slate for week 7. I tend to give Detroit the edge, only because of its superior offensive line. But no matter how it shakes out, this is a phenomenal matchup.
