It’s week 13 of the 2024 NFL season. This Sunday, December 1, the Minnesota Vikings will play against the Arizona Cardinals, with a chance to move their record to 10-2, with five games still left to play. But as most Vikings fans know, they still trail by one game in the NFC North.
The best team in the conference also happens to be the best team in Minnesota’s division, the 11-1 Detroit Lions. Because the Lions won, yet again, on Thanksgiving, the Vikings cannot take control of the North, no matter what happens between Minnesota and Arizona, or any other game left on the week 13 slate.
But that doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have playoff implications riding on a win. Of course, the Vikings and Lions still play one more time this season, in a week 18 finale that could decide, not just who wins the division, but who gets the number one seed in the playoffs, and a first round bye.
Minnesota Vikings can “essentially” clinch playoff spot vs Cardinals
Still, the main objective is making the postseason field, which includes seven teams from each conference. Four division winners, and three wildcards. Right now, according to projection models from both The Athletic and PlayoffStatus.com, the Minnesota Vikings have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. Pretty good odds, right?
Well, if they defeat the Arizona Cardinals, on Sunday, the Vikings would all but 100% secure their spot. It wouldn’t mathematically put them in, but it would put their odds at making the 2024 NFL Playoffs at >99%.
| Model | Current Playoff Odds | w/Win | w/Loss | Win NFC North | w/Win | w/Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Athletic | 98% | >99% | 92% | ||||
| PlayoffStatus | 98% | >99% | 94% | 10% | 11% | 4% |
The Vikings can essentially “clinch” a playoff spot with a win Sunday. No, mathematically, it’s not 100%, but the amount of things that would need to fall into place for them to miss the playoffs is astronomical. On the other hand, the Vikings still have a chance at overtaking the Lions for the NFC North crown and have a real shot at securing the first-round bye.
Austin Mock – The Athletic
As long as the Lions continue to win, the Vikings need to win too. As previously mentioned, they defeated the Chicago Bears on Thursday, so Minnesota must win on Sunday, to keep their realistic hopes of winning the NFC North alive.
Vikings’ upcoming schedule should produce more wins
Finishing behind Detroit, when the dust settles on the 2024 NFL regular season, would mean no better than the 5-seed in the NFC playoff bracket, come January. According to The Athletic’s projection model, the Vikings have a 65% chance of beating the Cardinals this week, a 66% chance of defeating the Falcons next week and a 76% chance of beating the Bears in week 15.
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All of those games are at home. Then, they close the regular season with @ Seahawks (51%), home vs Packers (51%) and @ Lions (35%). But first thing is first, and the Minnesota Vikings can pretty much seal their slot in the NFL playoff bracket Sunday, with a win.