Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Still Reigns Supreme Over Former Teammate Ja’Marr Chase
Much has been made about the perceived “fall-off” of Minnesota Vikings star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, recently. Prior to his two touchdown catches on Sunday vs the Falcons, Jefferson had gone six straight games without a touchdown, and four straight where he failed to eclipse 100 yards.
Remember his week 12 flop vs the Bears, when he caught two passes for just 27 total receiving yards? In the age of fantasy football, nobody cares that you are seeing bracket coverage every week, making it nearly impossible at times for Sam Darnold to get him the football. Justin Jefferson was a top 5 pick in most fantasy drafts, and they want to see that investment paid off every week with lots of yards and a touchdown or two.
Then, right after JJ had his come to Jesus performance on Sunday, his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase lit up the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football with 14 receptions for 177 yards and two touchdowns, adding to his lead in each category.
Who is better: Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson?
That led to this tweet from X aggregator, Dov Kleiman, which included a side-by-side comparison between Jefferson and Chase, with a caption that read, “It’s time to have a conversation.”
It’s time to have a conversation. pic.twitter.com/ZPrtL7QQPY
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 10, 2024
Jefferson trails Chase in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, suggesting that he hasn’t been on his college teammate’s level in 2024. However, the advanced metrics and per-route efficiency may suggest that Jefferson is not only not having a down season. He may be playing as well as ever and is still the league’s premier receiver.
Let’s compare the box score stats first. Numbers in parenthesis indicate rankings among qualified wide receivers in the league, excluding tight ends and running backs. All stats are from Next Gen Stats.
Chase leads the league in all three traditional receiving categories. Jefferson not only trails in all three categories, but his highest rank is 2nd in yards, behind only his LSU comrade. On standard paper, Chase clearly looks like the best wide receiver in the NFL.
| Justin Jefferson | 2024 Stats | Ja’Marr Chase |
|---|---|---|
| 75 (6th) | Receptions | 93 (1st) |
| 1,170 (2nd) | Yards | 1,319 (1st) |
| 7 (tied-4th) | Touchdowns | 15 (1st) |
| 15.6 (12th) | Yards Per Catch | 14.2 (tied-24th) |
| 419 (17th) | Routes | 509 (2nd) |
| 107 (6th) | Targets | 127 (3rd) |
But the bottom half of the table suggests that Chase’s box score stats are substantially higher than Jefferson’s, mostly due to a higher volume of routes and targets. His QB Joe Burrow targets him more often than Sam Darnold targets Jefferson, and the Bengals offense throws the ball even more than the Vikings.
That’s led to Ja’Marr running 90 more routes than Jefferson, which trails only Cleveland Browns wideout Jerry Jeudy, on the season. That’s almost seven more routes per game than Justin Jefferson. Not only that, but Chase gets 25% of the Bengals’ targets. For good reason, of course. He catches 73.2% of everything thrown his way.
Chase has a significant edge in touchdowns among all receivers, too. But receiving touchdowns can be overvalued as a metric of performance. Throughout a football game, touchdowns are relatively rare occurrences. They depend on multiple factors, including game flow and red zone opportunities.
The type of coverage Justin Jefferson gets 😂😭 https://t.co/DkVPI49405 pic.twitter.com/pwFy8LYdjC
— Edman (@__Edman__) December 10, 2024
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This can lead to significant variance in touchdowns from year to year. For example, Ja’Marr Chase had only seven touchdowns in 2023, despite playing 16 games and posting 100 catches for 1,216 yards. Through just 14 games in 2024, he already has 15.
The only season Jefferson has hit 10 touchdowns was in 2021, in part because he played with Adam Thielen for the first two seasons of his career, and that’s who Minnesota targeted in the red zone. What does that mean? Nothing. Even Julio Jones only reached 10 touchdowns one time during his 13-year HOF career.
Advanced metrics suggest Justin Jefferson is still the better WR
When looking at advanced metrics, Jefferson regains the edge. His efficiency and ability to succeed in challenging situations demonstrate why he remains the gold standard among NFL receivers.
| Justin Jefferson | 2024 Advanced Stats | Ja’Marr Chase |
|---|---|---|
| 2.79 (5th) | Yards Per Route Run | 2.59 (9th) |
| +10.2% (6th) | Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE) | +8.0 (12th) |
| 51 (4th) | Expected Points Added (EPA) | 54.5 (3rd) |
| 0.48 (tied-22nd) | EPA Per Target | 0.43 (30th) |
| 22.4% (32nd) | Tight Window % | 15.7% (tied-71st) |
Jefferson is averaging 0.2 yards per route more than Chase in 2024. So, if he ran 90 more routes to match Chase’s 509 at 2.79 yards per route, Jefferson would have 1,420 yards on the season. That would give him a 100-yard lead on Chase in the box score.
Another key stat is Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE), which measures how often a receiver makes a catch compared to what an average receiver would do in the same situation. This is based on factors such as the difficulty of the throw and the kind of coverage being played.
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Jefferson’s +10.2% CROE ranks sixth among all qualified wideouts. This means that when the ball is coming his way, he’s catching the ball despite whatever coverage he’s facing. His 11.7 air yards per target is over two yards higher than Chase (9.4), making the average pass more challenging for Jefferson. He is also catching passes in a tight windows more often than Chase.
Every catch from Justin Jefferson's 137-yard game against the Colts#NFL pic.twitter.com/rBL1wdycbg
— Highlight Vault (@HighlightVault) November 4, 2024
The two are neck-and-neck in total receiving EPA, a cumulative metric measuring how much a receiver contributes to his team’s scoring chances on a scoring play. Third-down conversions help the stat, while plays like drops hurt it.
Yet Jefferson once again holds the edge on a per-target basis. If he had the same number of targets, he would have 61 receiving EPA. It would take him 13 fewer targets than Chase to surpass Chase’s current number of 54.5.
Jefferson has outpaced Chase throughout their careers
If we compare their careers as well, Jefferson still has the advantage. Jefferson entered the league in 2020, and Chase came in one year later. Chase had 2.62 yards per route run as a rookie, the highest of his career. Jefferson’s lowest mark in a season came in 2022, when he averaged 2.68 yards per route run. Jefferson’s career-high came in 2023 when he averaged 2.99 yards per route run.
In terms of receiving EPA, Chase’s career high (+60.6) came during his rookie season. Jefferson exceeded that mark in three of his first four seasons. The only year he didn’t eclipse it was 2023 when he missed seven games due to injury and finished with plus-39.6 EPA.
Even if we look at the traditional stats, Jefferson holds the edge. He led the league with 128 receptions and 1,809 yards in 2022. Chase has yet to lead the league in either category, although we’ve already covered that he’s on pace to do it for the first time this season. Still, leading the league this year would match what Jefferson has done, not give Chase an advantage.
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No one has averaged more receiving yards per game in their career than these two receivers. Chase ranks second all-time with 86.8 yards per game. That still falls a whole 10 yards behind Jefferson, who is the all-time leader with 96.8 receiving yards per game. To put that in perspective, if Chase averaged 10 yards fewer per game, he’d rank 10th all-time.
Justin Jefferson is still the NFL standard
Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have been spectacular receivers, but Jefferson still holds the edge. Despite a lower volume of routes run, Jefferson is still more efficient than Chase in 2024. He’s had the advantage throughout their careers as well. These two are the NFL’s best receivers, but the best one still plays for the Minnesota Vikings.
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