Sportsbooks and MLB Projection Models All Aboard the 2024 Minnesota Twins Hype Train
As we edge closer to spring training, the hype surrounding the Minnesota Twins is growing. Opening day against the Kansas City Royals is less than a month away (March 28) and the Spring Training exhibition schedule opens on Friday vs the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Related: 2024 Minnesota Twins Spring Training schedule and more
As excitement builds, one narrative that seems to be pretty consistent throughout the baseball world is immense love for the 2024 Twins, who finished last season 87-75 and advanced in the playoffs for the first time in two decades. Beyond the departures of Sonny Gray and Jorge Polanco, the Twins’ roster remained mostly intact during the offseason.
The most trusted MLB projection models and sportsbooks are unanimously picking the Twins to win the American League Central. Some of the more optimistic outlooks peg them as a top-5 team in Major League Baseball. So, let’s take a closer look.
Projected Wins for the Minnesota Twins in 2024
Fangraphs, an MLB analytics website, utilizes statistics and data analysis to forecast season long win totals for teams. According to their projections, the Minnesota Twins are expected to win the AL Central and finish with the 10th best record in the league at 84-78, 5th-best in the American League.
| 2024 Projections | ||
| Braves | 97 | 65 |
| Dodgers | 93 | 69 |
| Astros | 91 | 71 |
| Yankees | 89 | 73 |
| Rays | 87 | 75 |
| Mariners | 86 | 76 |
| Orioles | 85 | 77 |
| Phillies | 85 | 77 |
| Blue Jays | 85 | 77 |
| Twins | 84 | 78 |
Related: Joe Pohlad Confirms Twins are Still Cutting Payroll and Have No Interest in Big Name Free Agents
ESPN‘s projection model projection model to evaluate the teams wins before the season, offering a different perspective from other sources. According to ESPN’s projection, the Twins are expected to secure the 5th most wins in the league, estimating approximately 88.9 wins with a 73.5% chance of making the playoffs.
Projection: 88.9 wins | 73.5% playoffs | 3.8% title
Hot stove: Gained 2.2 wins | 8th
All-in: 94.6 wins (79.9% playoffs)“There is a clear divide between the top four teams in the pecking order and this next tier, but nevertheless it’s a surprise to see the Twins leading this pack …. The Twins have a deep group of still-young MLB players whose performance trajectories are still pointed upward. It would have been nice to see Minnesota bolster this mix with a little spending but if you’re expecting the Twins to collapse because of the inaction, that’s probably not going to happen.”
ESPN
Sportsbooks Odds
DraftKings has the Minnesota Twins win total set at 86.5, slightly more optimistic than Fangraphs’ projection. FanDuel is even more optimistic, slotting the Twins in at 87.5 wins on the season.
Sportsbooks have recently updated its 2024 World Series odds. You don’t have to scroll very far to find the Minnesota Twins, who are tied for the 8th best odds (20/1) at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Four AL teams have better odds than they do in both books (Astros, Yankees, Orioles and Rangers).
| DraftKings | Fanduel |
|---|---|
| Dodgers +350 | Dodgers +320 |
| Braves +450 | Braves +450 |
| Astros +800 | Astros +700 |
| Yankees +1000 | Yankees +800 |
| Orioles +1200 | Rangers +1400 |
| Rangers +1400 | Phillies +1500 |
| Phillies +1500 | Orioles +1500 |
| Twins +2000 | Twins +2000 |
| Mariners +2000 | Blue Jays +2000 |
| Blue Jays +2000 | Mariners +2000 |
Related: Twins’ Royce Lewis is a Dark Horse AL MVP Candidate
American League Central Odds
After clinching the American League Central title last season, the Minnesota Twins are gearing up to defend their division championship. As previously mentioned, the sportsbooks are high on the Twins repeating as division champs. DraftKings has the Twins listed as -115 favorites in the AL Central and Fanduel has them even more likely to win it at -140.
- Twins -115
- Tigers +350
- Guardians +350
- Royals +850
- White Sox +4000
- Twins -140
- Tigers +350
- Guardians +400
- Royals +1000
- White Sox +3800
Get excited, Twins fans. Once again, your team should mop up on one of the weakest divisions in baseball, and there’s a lot of young and exciting talent on the roster, plenty of playoff experience to go along with it.
We get upset with the Pohlads and want them to spend more money but there’s no doubt the Minnesota Twins have the potential to be competitive for years to come, and this season SHOULD mark another positive step forward.
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