Ranking: 10 Most Likely Minnesota Twins to be Traded This Offseason
The Minnesota Twins have begun their offseason preparations. After a disastrous end to the 2024 regular season that caused them to miss playoffs, we can expect some pretty major shakeups this offseason.
Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli are both back. So is pitching coach Pete Maki. The hitting coaches were all let go, however, and we can expect a lot of change on the roster, too. Unfortunately, they won’t be spending money to make those changes happen, which means Falvey’s Thad Levine-less front office will look to the trade market.
The Twins are for sale, but the Pohlad family will still be in control this offseason. They have said that payroll won’t decrease further, but a $130 million budget leaves them with no additional money to spend.
Ranking the most likely Minnesota Twins to be traded this offseason
Based on each player’s combination of value, both in-terms of salary and on-field production, here are the ten most likely Twins to be traded this offseason, ranked from least (10) to most likely (1).
10. Randy Dobnak, Starting Pitcher
The story here is well-told. Dobnak did earn his way back to the big leagues last year and posted a 5.59 ERA in just 9 2/3 innings. The walks have been an issue, but he has seen a jump in strikeouts. Minnesota is still on the hook for $4.2 million of the contract, but they’d let him go anywhere else if a team was willing to swallow that for a dart-throw starter.
— Randy Dobnak (@Dobnak_) July 30, 2024
9. Justin Topa, Relief Pitcher
Minnesota acquired Topa last season as virtually the only usable big league piece in the Jorge Polanco deal. He was supposed to be a high-leverage bullpen arm. That quickly fell apart when he was injured during spring training, and Topa contributed just 2 1/3 innings this season.
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It makes more sense for the Twins to keep Topa if they believe his health has turned a corner. He is arbitration eligible this year and is projected for just a $500,000 boost to $1.3 million.
8. Matt Wallner, Outfielder
At multiple points last season it looked like the Twins would trade Matt Wallner. Opposing teams called on him at various points but they never pulled the trigger. He posted a 149 OPS+ and was arguably the Twins best hitter. It appears that Wallner is in line to replace Max Kepler in right field.
Those reasons all make it unlikely that he is dealt, but this could be the last chance for the Twins to sell high and get multiple pieces in return. He will make the league minimum in 2025.
Matt Wallner last season — .877 OPS
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) July 24, 2024
Matt Wallner this season — .885 OPSpic.twitter.com/AQqr4Zf3GD
7. Yunior Severino, Infielder
It has been a slow climb through the minors for Severino, but the 25-year-old is on the doorstep. Once an Atlanta Braves prospect before being declared a free agent, he has now flashed two years of power at Triple-A St. Paul.
Severino is limited to first base or designated hitter duties, and his glove isn’t great at the one spot he does play. There is plenty of swing and miss in his game, but he draws walks and hits dingers. Minnesota would deal Severino if they found a big league return in exchange.
6. Jhoan Duran, Relief Pitcher
This would be a big move, but not one the Twins will shy away from if the offer is right. Duran is coming off a down year that was likely impacted by his oblique injury. The Dodgers did call on him during the trade deadline, and Minnesota should ask for a haul.
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He’s first year arbitration eligible and projected to get a sizable boost up to $3.7 million. If Minnesota can parlay Duran into multiple big-league ready pieces, they probably have to consider it.
Jhoan Duran, Obscene 99mph Splinker. 😲 pic.twitter.com/QICuckfoF0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 27, 2024
5. Jorge Alcala, Relief Pitcher
There was no arm used in a more confusing way this season than how the Twins deployed Jorge Alcala. He was options and recalled at breakneck speeds, and he was asked to throw plenty despite previous arm issues.
The reliever still posted a career year in spite of that. It doesn’t seem like Alcala is a guy that Minnesota will prioritize, and the easy out is just an unprecedented $55,000 buyout. If he is kept, it will be on a $1.5 million team option.
4. Willi Castro, Utility
If Kyle Farmer hamstrung the Twins unnecessarily last year, then Castro could be that guy this season. Farmer was given a $6.3 million contract through arbitration, something the market would have never produced. Castro, although named the Twins MVP, produced just a 102 OPS+ and is at $3.3 million.
He’s projected for a $6.2 million salary in 2025, and that may be a bit rich for a utility player. Minnesota can tender him a contract, go to arbitration, and try working out a trade in the interim.
3. Alex Kirilloff, First Base/Outfielder
Kirilloff may have sealed his fate with the Twins after disclosing a back injury only after being demoted. He has never stayed healthy, and just once produced an OPS better than league average. He isn’t a candidate to start at first base, as was evident when the Twins signed Carlos Santana.
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He’s not great in the outfield, and the bat has never lived up to draft projections. This could be a perfect change of scenery situation, and Minnesota probably isn’t jumping at the idea of paying him nearly $2 million in 2025.
Related: Minnesota Twins 1B Carlos Santana Keeps Gold Glove Hopes Alive
2. Chris Paddack, Starting Pitcher
When Derek Falvey dealt Taylor Rogers just before Opening Day in 2022, he did so with the hopes that Chris Paddack could regain his rookie form. We have seen glimpses of it, but he has also been consistently injured.
Paddack has $7.5 million left on his contract, and that’s a lot for a guy who should be a fourth option for the rotation at best. The Twins would willingly offload him to any franchise lining up to eat that salary. He probably isn’t going to return much, but it allows for financial flexibility.
Chris Paddack has a 1.02 ERA in three starts at Target Field this season.
— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) May 4, 2024
April 10th vs Dodgers: 4.2 IP, 2 ER
April 22nd vs White Sox: 7.0 IP, 0 ER
May 3rd vs Red Sox: 6.0 IP, 0 ER pic.twitter.com/GhDp64D1Jt
1. Christian Vazquez, Catcher
If there’s a player Minnesota would love to move more than anyone, Christian Vazquez is it. Although his 60 OPS+ this season was a career-worst, the biggest problem is his $10 million salary. At half of that or less, the offense is fine with how good of a defender and clubhouse guy he is.
A team with no payroll flexibility can’t carry that number though. Because of his recent performance, the Twins will likely need to include a prospect in order to move Vazquez. This deal is probably going to hurt, but it has to be viewed through the lens of what happens to those dollars.
Am told that Christian Vazquez did turn down a larger offer to join the #MNTwins, thinks they can win.
— Ted (@tlschwerz) December 14, 2022
Certainly hope Falvey and Levine can come through on the blueprint they sold him.
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