MLB ZiPS Projection are Luke Warm on 2025 Minnesota Twins

By Ted Schwerzler |

Updated: Jan 14, 2025

Minnesota Twins, Carlos Correa — Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

This offseason has been slow for the Minnesota Twins. To suggest they have been active in any way when it comes to roster construction would be disingenuous. That means projection systems can largely focus on the returning talent.

Each offseason FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski puts out his yearly ZiPS projections. The system is built off a four-year model with recent seasons weighted most heavily. The goal is to create a picture of what could be.

Carlos Correa must lead Minnesota Twins again in 2025

Most notably, the team projection for the Minnesota Twins has them competing in an otherwise watered-down division. Cleveland has done little to substantiate their position as reigning champs, and neither the Royals nor the Tigers has moved the needle much either.

“This is a solidly built team that is deep enough to have a pretty high floor. That said, the Twins have enough weaknesses that ZiPS puts them in the 85-88 win range right now. The AL Central projects to be one of the closer divisions in baseball, and the Twins likely will still be playing meaningful games in September.”
Dan Szymborski on the Twins (FanGraphs)

The depth for Minnesota is all internally reliant at this point. Last year prospects were promoted to patch holes, and outside veteran help won’t be a big piece of the puzzle this year either. The floor may be high assuming things work out, but that’s a lofty expectation.

Carlos Correa's 10th home run of the year gives the @Twins some late insurance. pic.twitter.com/6OnEvED3ik
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2024

Carlos Correa (hopefully) isn’t dealing with lingering plantar fasciitis issues this offseason, and after positing a team-leading 4.3 fWAR, ZiPS sees him positively in 2025.

Name	PA	Average	On-Base	SLG	HR	fWAR	Comp
Carlos Correa	495	.272	.354	.456	18	3.7	Troy Tulowitzki

Carlos Correa’s 2025 ZiPS Projections (FanGraphs)

From a projection standpoint, Correa’s numbers are lower than the .310/.388/.517 slash line that he posted last season. Limited to just 367 plate appearances though, the belief that he is healthier is evident. The player comparison of 30-year-old Troy Tulowitzki is representative of All-Star production as well.

If Correa is going to get help offensively, ZiPS see it coming from Byron Buxton. His 3.7 fWAR in 2024 was impressive, and he played in more than 100 games for just the second time in his career.

Byron Buxton is our #3 center fielder heading into 2025, after slugging .524 for the @Twins this year!#Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/HzfuyShE7n
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 8, 2025

A projection of 377 plate appearances puts him just below the 388 from last season and would mean the Twins are without him for a considerable stretch again.

Ultimately, Minnesota’s lineup is only going to be as good as its secondary players. Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Royce Lewis will have to provide production behind the most-expected sources.

Pitching can shine for the Twins

Last year the major discrepancy for the Minnesota Twins was between actual and expected statistics. The top of the rotation fell a bit short, especially Pablo Lopez. The bigger cause for concern was just how bad the secondary arms fared. Szymborski sees some positives peeking through there.

“ZiPS expects a lot more from all four pitchers, especially Matthews, and overall, it projects the rotation to be somewhere between sixth and 10th in baseball in WAR.”
Szymborski on the Twins rotation (FanGraphs)

Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all have ERA projections at 3.91 or lower. Matthews and David Festa both take strong projected steps forward. Chris Paddack again looks mediocre, but he could be gone or displaced by a rising prospect.

August 25, 2024.@ZebbyMatthews against Cardinals.

5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K#MNTwins lose 3-2.

FACT: Zebby Matthews had a 2.70 ERA against National League opponents in 2024 (10.0 IP and 3 ER vs STL and SD). pic.twitter.com/ke3iL9dJgL
— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) November 21, 2024

Then there’s the looming hope that the bullpen can achieve what it was constructed to do a season ago. “Best bullpen in baseball” was thrown around, and that belief is shared by ZiPS in 2025.

“The Twins had the second-best bullpen in the American League last year by WAR (5.9), and the good news for Minnesota fans is that the bullpen should remain terrific in 2025. In fact, though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball.”
Szymborski on the Twins bullpen (FanGraphs)

Jhoan Duran had a tough season with a 3.64 ERA despite a 2.85 FIP. ZiPS projects a dazzling 2.36 ERA with 76 strikeouts in just 61 innings. Griffin Jax is staying in the bullpen, and that tandem being good would create one of the best leverage relief pairs in baseball.

There's a very strong argument for Griffin Jax being the best reliever in baseball🔥 pic.twitter.com/zMISJquWyS
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) January 13, 2025

The Twins’ strength should be pitching in 2025, and that might be tough to believe after how they finished in 2024. Offensive additions beyond Mike Ford and Mickey Gasper would be welcomed, and that’s where the offseason should focus through the finish line.