The Minnesota Twins have yet to catch the Cleveland Guardians. Rocco Baldelli’s group hasn’t been within a single game of the AL Central lead since early May. Chances have presented themselves, but so far, Minnesota has come up empty.
Are the Minnesota Twins giving away their opportunity?
In early August the Twins hosted series against both the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals. They were already without Carlos Correa, and lost Byron Buxton one game into the Royals matchup. Before those matchups, Minnesota was 1.5 games back in the division. They split with Cleveland and bested Kansas City, but found themselves 4.5 games out when the dust settled.
Over the 11 games since the Twins have gone just 5-6. Since being walked off by the Texas Rangers, Rocco Baldelli’s club is 2-6. In that time though, they have closed the gap back to 2.5 games. On the 9th both Minnesota and Cleveland had identical 89.2% odds of making the postseason. Today the Twins sit at 89.7%, just above the Royals 89.6% despite trailing them in the division.
What has transpired equates to days being ripped off the calendar. Minnesota hasn’t executed on opportunity in front of them, and yet they haven’t fallen apart either. The Twins remain in contention for a postseason spot, but they should be shooting for a bye rather than a Wild Card berth.
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The AL Central certainly isn’t a bottom-feeder this season, but the Twins need to find a way back to the top.
It’s not just the Guardians for the Minnesota Twins
All season the desire for the Minnesota Twins has been to chase down the Cleveland Guardians. Terry Francona stepped aside and gave way to Stephen Vogt, but the first-time manager has kept his club in the lead. Minnesota is and ugly 2-7 against the Guardians, and own a -13 run differential. The Royals have passed them as well, though.
Minnesota has bested the Royals in seven of ten games this season, but the results have been separated by just seven runs. Despite the Royals finishing with 106 losses last season, they have experienced a massive turnaround in just a year. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha both wound up being great signings, and the pitching staff has made use of Bobby Witt Jr.’s MVP-worthy season.
The Twins consistently have seen higher odds than the Royals despite having been overtaken in the standings. Minnesota owns the tiebreaker, and Baldelli’s club gets three more games at Kaufman Stadium to start September. Minnesota must take that series and get healthy.
Fangraphs has the Twins at just 25.7% to win the division, behind both Cleveland and Kansas City. The best odds in the division, owned by Cleveland, are just 39.5% to grab a bye. Of the group from the AL Central though, it’s Minnesota’s 5.4% odds to win the World Series that reign supreme. All of these could have been bolstered by legitimate trade deadline additions.
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If Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa can return, the lineup sees a big boost. Joe Ryan probably isn’t coming back, and that means the youth must step up in the rotation. This team can make noise in October, but they have to get there.