Twins Projected to Pass Guardians in AL Central
We are about to start the 2nd half of the Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins are sitting 4.5 games back of the Cleveland Guardians, in the American League Central . Can this Twins squad use the final 66 games to surpass their division rival?
It won’t be easy. The Guardians have sat atop the AL Central since April 14. A handful of games may not seem like a massive mountain to climb. Nonetheless, it’s a peak they haven’t really reached through 96 games.
Minnesota Twins projected to pass Cleveland Guardians in AL Central
It’s only a matter of time, though. At least that’s what The Athletic’s MLB projection model believes. It has the Twins finishing the 2024 season with 89.5 wins, just sneaking in ahead of their division rival (89.1).
| Playoffs (AL Seed) | Team | Proj. Wins | Playoff Odds | Div Odds | Pennant | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East (1) | Yankees | 95.9 | 99.4% | 56.8% | 26% | 14.8% |
| WC1 (4) | Orioles | 94.8 | 98.6% | 41.8% | 20.5% | 11% |
| Central (2) | Twins | 89.5 | 84.2% | 47.1% | 14.3% | 6.8% |
| West (3) | Astros | 85.9 | 60.9% | 49% | 10.7% | 5.2% |
| WC2 (5) | Mariners | 85.3 | 54.1% | 41% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
| WC3 (6) | Guardians | 89.1 | 80.8% | 41.1% | 8.8% | 3% |
| OUT (8) | Royals | 85.2 | 45.4% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 2% |
| OUT (7) | Red Sox | 85.5 | 49.5% | 1.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
For those who remember what the pre-season projections models and betting odds said about the American League Central, this isn’t surprising. If that’s your mindset then the only thing notable in the chart above is how many AL Central teams have a chance at making the 2024 MLB postseason.
Related: Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart Both Believe They’re Ready; Twins Say They’re Not
Back then, the Twins were supposed to easily walk away with the AL Central, even after an offseason of payroll cuts. Instead, it’s been one of the best divisions in baseball. And not only that, but The Athletic’s model has Minnesota receiving a first round playoff bye, which is granted to the top two division winners in each league.
Minnesota Twins projected to receive first round playoff bye?
While the Orioles are projected to finish with a much better record than the Twins, they are in the same division as the Yankees, who the model predicts will have the best record in the AL, once the dust settles on the 2024 regular season. That means Baltimore would drop to the No. 1 wildcard and Minnesota would receive the 2-seed. Cleveland, meanwhile, squeaks in with the final wildcard spot in the league.
The year keeps changing, but my model continues to underrate the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a 4.5-game lead at the break, but the simulations are favoring the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Again, subjectively, that number seems a bit off, but I wouldn’t be rushing to the window to bet BetMGM’s price of -175 for the Guardians to win the division. My money would be on the Twins at +200.
Austin Mock – The Athletic
Obviously, this isn’t the first time this projection model has reflected poorly on the Guardians likelihood of winning the AL Central. Is that a product of Mock’s model missing something, or is Cleveland looking at an inevitable 2nd half slide?
We are about to find out…
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