Twins Turn to Interesting Choice at Leadoff

The Minnesota Twins have kicked off Spring Training and they’ll actually play a meaningful baseball game this month when the regular season starts. Although there are more than a few questions to be answered for the roster still, certain decisions are already taking shape.

First base looked like a position without a set starter up until until a couple of weeks ago when the Twins signed former All-Star Ty France. We all know and love our shortstop Carlos Correa, and the prowess that is his fielding ability. It’s set in stone that Royce Lewis is now going to play third base this season. Which leaves second base, where Minnesota would love to see Brooks Lee win that job over the course of Spring Training.

Rocco Baldelli’s outfield will have a much different look than last season, as well. After Max Kepler signed with the Phillies, and the Twins signed Harrison Bader, some wondered what the starting spots would be. We now know that Matt Wallner is going to take Kepler’s place in right field, and the Forest Lake native may have a much more prominent spot in the batting order as well.

Matt Wallner lining up to be Minnesota Twins leadoff hitter

Through the first six Grapefruit League Spring Training games Matt Wallner has been in the lineup four times. He has also been the leadoff hitter in each of those contests. Rocco Baldelli recently addressed that with the Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale.

“I want to give [Wallner] opportunities in spring training to gain some comfort, so it gives us the option to do it when the season starts. I wouldn’t want to stick someone out there Opening Day that has not had to do that. It’s trying to use these games for good use. Over the last two seasons, you look at his body of work, he’s been as good of a hitter as we have. Overall, he gets on base and hits balls hard…It’s not traditional, but if he does it, I think it has a chance to be really effective.”

“Correa and Buck hit back to back, and they can face anyone and do a good job. Breaking up those lefties [Wallner and Larnach], maybe it asks the opposing team to answer a question in a different way than the way we posed it before.”

Rocco Baldelli on lineup construction (Star Tribune)

Minnesota has seemingly had a need for a right-handed corner outfielder the past few seasons, as Kepler was the only mainstay, but he hits the left side. The front office has opted against signing one, however, and that leaves a level of redundancy with youngsters Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Although they’ve been on the big league squad before, they’re still young ,and the hope is that they make meaningful strides this year. The strategy is being used because Baldelli has to split up his lefties in the lineup, and this could be a way to make it work. Instead of allowing one left-handed pitcher, who dominates left-handed hitters, to face Larnach and Wallner in one go, now opposing teams will have to be more strategic.

Last season Wallner played in 75 games for the MN Twins and finished with a .259/.372/.523 slash line. He had 17 doubles, 13 home runs, and drew 24 walks. While the 95 strikeouts are significant, Baldelli’s suggestion that he gets on base is accurate. If Wallner can cut down on the strikeouts, he could find the leadoff spot as a more common spot for himself this year.

444 feet.

Matt Wallner got all of this home run 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/lukjfplyQp

— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024

Wallner also parlayed a tough spring training into a terrible start, in which he owned a .513 OPS through 13 games. Not very good, folks. He earned a demotion to Triple-A and didn’t come back until June 7th. From that point on, a period of 62 games, he owned a .282/.386/.559 slash line. If Wallner can keep up that momentum, he won’t be going back to St. Paul this season.

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It may seem unconventional to put a power hitter in the leadoff spot, but the real goal should be to ambush the opposing pitcher and get on base. Wallner has the capability to make it a 1-0 game from the first at bat, and he gets on base at a very high clip.

Baldelli is always going to bat Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton near the top of the lineup, as he should. They are the keys and the power to the lineup. Splitting his slugging lefties is a must, though, and this is a very logical way to make it work. As long as Wallner can hold up his end of the bargain.

MN Twins have experimented this way before

Last year it was a rotating cast of Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, and Manuel Margot atop the lineup. Of that trio, only Castro provided any real value. That group is more traditional than Wallner, in the sense of being quicker infield types that can slap a single. Joey Gallo was not that, however, and is probably more similar to a Wallner type comparison. And Rocco Baldelli even experimented with Gallo’s fit as a leadoff hitter, too.

Back in 2023 the Twins used Gallo as their leadoff hitter on 10 different occasions. He profiles in a similar fashion to Wallner in that he hits the ball hard, and gets on base. Of course the difference for Gallo is that he never found his swing for the Twins and finished with just a .301 OBP. That was substantially lower than the .351 OBP he posted two years prior with Texas, and New York.

Last year Wallner had a career-high 40.5% hard hit rate, above league average. He ripped line drives over 22% of the time and elevated the baseball 47.6% of the time, which is also among ranks good enough to be in the leadoff spot. His 17.4% whiff rate could use a bit of a dial back if Wallner wants to stay in the leadoff spot, as that is simply too high compared to league average of around 11%-12% but his 63.8% contact rate does work well in the leadoff spot.

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Lineup construction isn’t what it was when teams needed to strictly manufacture run scoring opportunities. There is a premium placed on driving the baseball, and getting on base will continue be a focal point. If Baldelli wants to lean into that this season, then Wallner could be the guy for the job.