Is This the End for Chris Paddack in Minnesota?

The Minnesota Twins put Chris Paddack back in the rotation for 2024 after he missed the bulk of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has posted mix results this year, but another injury could end his time with the organization.

When the Minnesota Twins came back from the All-Star Break, their fifth starter was placed on the injured list. Chris Paddack went into the break healthy, but a forearm strain popped up in a bullpen session during the time off.

As Rocco Baldelli’s club returned to Target Field, Paddack was quickly placed on the injured list. The move was made on July 20, and retroactive to July 17. That means Chris could return to the Twins as early as Friday, but that probably isn’t going to happen.

No end in sight for Minnesota Twins Chris Paddack

The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports that Chris Paddack will remain “out indefinitely“, which feels much more ominous than Friday… or anytime in the near future, for that matter.

This is a pitcher that has already missed multiple seasons due to different Tommy John surgeries. He was the desired piece when Minnesota dealt Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the San Diego Padres, but his health since that deal was consummated has the Twins looking really bad.

Minnesota, when all is said and done, will have paid Chris Paddack something near $13 million over three seasons. If he never again pitchers for the club, he’ll have contributed a whopping 115 2/3 innings across four seasons.

With a 4.82 ERA across that stretch, he has been the epitome of mediocrity. It’s not an exorbitant amount, but considering the production, certainly a sunk cost.

How long will Chris Paddack be out?

At the trade deadline the Minnesota Twins sought starting pitching help. They were looking for an arm better than Paddack, but the group as a whole needed depth due to his injury. Next year Paddack gets a bump to $7.5 million, and with ownership limiting payroll, that’s a gaudy amount for a guy who won’t contribute if surgery is the answer.

Related: Carlos Correa is Latest Twin to Land on IL for Injury He Claimed was Minor, Chris Paddack Joins Him

Paddack’s forearm strain could have a myriad of outcomes, but that designation is not an ideal one in the baseball world. Given his declining velocity, it’s hard to be optimistic about the rest of this season.

What do the Twins have if Paddack doesn’t return?

The targets for the Twins at the deadline were primarily rentals. How the rotation looks to start next year remains to be seen. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are givens. Simeon Woods Richardson has probably pitched himself into a spot.

Beyond that it’s David Festa, Randy Dobnak, and Zebby Matthews. There are high enough ceilings that losing Paddack won’t hurt. What becomes a problem is the sunk cost of the salary for an ownership group unwilling to spend.

Related: Randy Dobnak Pulls Michael Jordan Move for Minnesota Twins, “I’m Back”

If this is the end for Chris Paddack, then he’ll go down as a talent that could have been. Similar to his time in San Diego, there have been flashes of a dominant arm. Unfortunately he has also failed to show consistency, and his body hasn’t done him any favors.

At 28 years old now, and maybe 30 by the time he would return from a surgery, there is a future in the game. It definitely won’t be the same the production and availability would have produced, however.