New MN Twins Starting Outfielder Named 2025 Breakout Candidate

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Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
Credit: Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

Not every player in Major League Baseball ends up with a career like Joe Mauer, in the MLB Hall of Fame. But even fewer do it all with one team. On the current roster, Byron Buxton is entering his 11th year playing the Minnesota Twins, after they drafted him No. 2 overall in 2012.

But this will be one of the first seasons in Buxton’s professional career where he won’t have nine-year MLB veteran Max Kepler — who signed with the Phillies as a free agent this offseason — playing beside him in right field. The two friends played together through the minors and both broke through into the big leagues in 2015.

Now that Kepler is out, Forest Lake, MN’s own Matt Wallner — who has never gotten more than 261 plate appearances during his three MLB seasons — is in line to replace him as the Twins’ starting right fielder. What should we expect from Wallner?

Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Hopefully he gets off to a better start than he did in 2024, where he was demoted to St. Paul after hitting .080 in the first 13 games of the season. After 75 games getting with the Saints, Wallner was called back up by the Twins where he finished with a career-best .259 batting average and 866 OPS, thanks to his .282/.386/.559 slash line over the final 62 games.

Matt Wallner ready to rock for Minnesota Twins

During Grapefruit League action last year, Matt Wallner batted just .132/.227/.395 with a 17/4 K/BB, and the problems persisted into the regular season. This time around, Wallner’s slash line looks a lot better: .240/.309/.640. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden likes what he sees, naming Wallner as one of his 2025 “breakout candidates.”

“Wallner has walloped six home runs this spring and has a direct pathway to a full-time gig in the Twins’ lineup. He reached base at a 37 percent clip last season while posting a 149 OPS+ and hammering 13 home runs in 220 at-bats. He topped the 80th percentile in exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit rate and bat speed. He also has a rifle for an arm.”

The Athletic

The Twins are now using Wallner as a leadoff hitter, which actually makes a ton of sense, especially against right-handed pitchers. Sure, he strikes out a lot (36.4% clip last season), but he also reaches takes a ton of walks, gets a lot of hits, and hits plenty of bombs. Worthy trade offs.

It’s not the end of the world if a leadoff hitter strikes out to open a game. It can be a serious momentum play if they put a ball in the seats. The top spot in the lineup isn’t the traditional slap-hitter with speed anymore. The Twins also don’t have a prototypical answer, especial without knowing what Edouard Julien’s role will be.

Minnesota understandably loves how often Wallner gets off his A-swing. He had a 53.2% hard-hit rate last season, and barreled the baseball 17.5% of the time. If he hits the ball in the air, nearly a quarter of the time it’s with the right trajectory and it’s going to leave the yard.

Related: 2025 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projection (2.0)

It has been a solid spring for the Twins right fielder, and he leads both the Grapefruit and Cactus League in home runs with six. If that translates into the season, and he doesn’t experience the slow start, he’ll crush the 2.1 fWAR he posted last season.

Can MN Twins replicate Wallner with Trevor Larnach?

Coming into the season Wallner and Trevor Larnach are expected to man the corner outfield spots. The former is a breakout candidate while the latter is a former top-prospect and is looking to succeed post-hype. After being shuttled the past handful of years, Larnach got 112 games at the big league level last season.

His .259/.338/.434 slash line resulted in a 116 OPS+ to produce career-best numbers. His 1.5 fWAR was also a career-high, and it’s something to build on this season. Larnach doesn’t have the defensive upside that Wallner does, but he can also be paired with free agent addition Harrison Bader.

Related: Chronic Back Injury Causing Problems for MN Twins Infielder Again

The largest bugaboo for Larnach to date has been his inability to consistently hit for power. Minnesota picked him out of Oregon State because of his exit-velocity prowess. He has never had a 50% hard-hit rate and barreled just 10.1% of baseballs last year. There is room for new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte to get more from him, and they continue to be in the lab.

Byron Buxton is the superstar defender in the outfield. If the Twins can get both of their corners to bop in tandem this season, then they are going to have a lineup that has next to no holes for the opposition.

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