The Minnesota Twins season has been over for a month now and the World Series ended Wednesday night, with a Dodgers sweep after the Yankees imploded in game 4. So we are here, the MLB offseason. What’s first up? The the Twins must set their 40-man roster, before the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
What is the Major League Baseball ‘Rule 5 Draft’?
Any 18+ y/o minor league veteran with 4-5 years of pro experience, who is not on their current team’s 40-man roster by November 19, is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. These days, the Rule 5 Draft is used to stop teams from burying players in their minor league systems. But its mention dates back to 1941, its use all the way back to 1892.
Those eligible, as defined by Major League Baseball, include: “Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club’s 40-Man roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons.”
Eligible players not on their organization’s 40-man roster become available for other MLB teams to “draft”. The catch: Anyone selected must remain on his new team’s MLB roster (26-man) for the entire season, or they go back to their original team.
Three Minnesota Twins prospects who MUST be added to 40-man roster
The Minnesota Twins have more than a handful of players who are worthy of being selected through the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place during the MLB Winter Meetings, in December. But there are THREE Twins minor leaguers who absolutely must be added to the team’s 40-man roster in the next two weeks, or they won’t be here anymore.
Kala’i Rosario, OF – 22 years old
Minnesota picked Rosario out of high school, in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. The Hawaiian suffered through a slow start to his professional career, but that’s not surprising, for a teenager. Since, he has bulked up, which has somewhat transformed him into a legitimate home run threat.
After leading the Arizona Fall League in dingers last year, he returned in 2024, after participating in just 69 regular season games between Single and Double A. There is a lot of swing and miss to Rosario’s game, which can prove frustrating, but his short sting performances at Double-A, late this summer, and now at the AFL, Rosario has shown a lot of scouts that he can play at the highest levels.
Kala’i Rosario stays hot in the @MLBazFallLeague recording his third XBH in the AFL and his fourth straight game with a hit 📈#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/GsB6kWw10K
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) October 18, 2024
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It’s a small sample, which is always the case in the Arizona Fall League. In 14 AFL games this season, Rosario is batting .320 for the Salt River Rafters, which includes a pair of homers and 10 RBI, in just 14 games.
He’s the perfect type of power-hitting prospect that teams like to take fliers on, during the Rule 5 Draft. As long as the Minnesota Twins doe the right thing, Kala’i Rosario will start his 2025 season at Double-A Wichita.
Marco Raya, SP – 22 years old
Taken one round ahead of Rosario, in the 2020 MLB Draft, Raya entered this summer competing with David Festa, as the Minnesota Twins top pitching prospect. Raya scuffled early, at Double-A, but recovered nicely, and worked his way to Triple-A St. Paul, to end the year.
Once a top-100 prospect, Raya’s minor league stock has taken a hit, in recent years, in part because the Twins have played it so carefully with his development (only 3.9 innings per start in 2024). Marco’s 4.27 ERA this summer wasn’t dazzling, but his talent is undeniable, and he undoubtedly got better as the year went on.
In his final 7 starts (34.1 innings), which included a 5-inning shutout appearance for the Saints, Marco Raya finished strong, with a 1.31 ERA, to go with an opponent batting average of just .192 (.515 OPS).
How about that for a Triple-A debut for the #MNTwins number 6 prospect, Marco Raya. He goes 5.0 shutout innings allowing five hits while walking one and striking out four. He throws 72 pitches, 46 strikes and gets 8 swings and misses pic.twitter.com/dNOOw1Y0Rx
— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) September 21, 2024
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There’s a reason why the Twins have babied Raya, throughout his professional career. He has triple-digit stuff and there’s a good chance he would be among the first Rule 5 prospects taken, if left unprotected. No matter where he plays next year, I expect Marco to make his major league debut in 2025.
Ricardo Olivar, C/OF – 23 years old
You don’t often see a catcher play centerfield, but Olivar did that three times in 2023. He’s more of a corner outfielder if not behind the plate, but he predominantly settled in at catcher this season.
The bat certainly plays there as he posted an .823 OPS while displaying a nice power and on-base combination. He’s still a work in progress defensively and a career 12% caught stealing rate is laughable. The catching position is not an offensively flush role at the highest level.
Welcome to the @WindSurgeICT, Ricardo Olivar‼️
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 1, 2024
The 22-year-old showed out yesterday for his new squad:
✅2nd career game in Double-A
✅1st career 5-hit game
✅7th career game with 2 doubles#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/vuNJeNuFbz
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Olivar made it to Double-A last season, and there would be an organization willing to take a chance on him making the jump. Minnesota has just three catchers on the 40-man, and Christian Vazquez is a prime candidate to be dealt. Ryan Jeffers, Jair Camargo, and Olivar present plenty of questions for the position though.
The best of the rest for Rule 5 Eligible Minnesota Twins prospects
There are substantially more players that the Twins could opt to protect if they so choose. Spots on the 40-man roster are limited though, and the shuffle has to be worth betting on a young prospect. Infielder Rubel Cespedes played 110 games at High-A Cedar Rapids, but he’s 23 and owned just a .777 OPS.
Travis Adams put in good work at Double-A, but he looked overmatched in brief action for the Saints. Anthony Prato had a .990 OPS in 72 games last year for the Saints, but went undrafted. He won’t be protected this time around either.
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Most of the fringe players have replicas throughout other organizations. Beyond Minnesota’s top three, it seems relatively unlikely that anyone else is added. The Twins are likely to be active on the trade market, and those results could have a bearing on their decision making here as well.
We are now just days away from the offseason getting underway. The Twins need to turn the page in the most desperate way, and their opportunity to do so begins soon.