Gleeman Has Little Faith in Minnesota Twins at Trade Deadline

Those who are able to watch the Minnesota Twins have seen an offense sparking like fireworks on the Fourth of July. Even with superstar Royce Lewis injured, the Twins keep plugging hitters into the lineup who mash like your mom’s potatoes.

The story hasn’t quite been the same for the Twins’ pitching staff, which no long has Sonny Gray and has struggled with injury issues in the first half of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson has had a breakout year (thank god), but there is no Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis coming up to save the pitching staff, which could certainly use some help.

But now that the Twins have one of the most powerful offenses in baseball, they are sure to go get that help before the MLB trade deadline, right? That’s what you do when on the verge of competing for the World Series, after all. Not so fast.

Aaron Gleeman has little faith in Minnesota Twins at trade deadline

Yes, it would make sense for Derek Falvey to go out and secure more pitching help, and it’s very possible they do something between now and the July 31 deadline. But the Twins need a top 3 starter, not a bottom-rotation throw in for the 2nd half.

Problem is, those types of pitchers do not come cheap. And if you expect the Pohlads to lift their 2024 spending cap just because they have a good team, then you haven’t been paying attention. But Aaron Gleeman (The Athletic) has, and he has very little faith.

The “front-line” part of front-line starter is key, because [the Twins] not lacking in decent options.

Upgrading the playoff rotation would require adding someone better than Bailey Ober. And even upgrading the regular-season rotation would require adding someone better than Paddack or Woods Richardson, as well as in-house backup arms like Festa, Varland and ascending Double-A prospect Zebby Matthews.

That’s a much higher bar than simply needing a competent starter, and the cost to clear it would be substantial in terms of prospect capital, especially if Twins ownership isn’t willing to take on much salary.

Aaron Gleeman on the likelihood that the Twins splash at MLB Trade Deadline (The Athletic)

The Twins’ farm system has enjoyed a breakout season. But unless they are willing to move Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner or Walker Jenkins, they won’t be able to compete with offers on the types of pitchers they need. That’s especially true since ownership, as Gleeman notes, wouldn’t be willing to take on salary in a deal, even at a prorated cost.

So, we should probably just buckle in for what could be an interesting 2nd half, where we’ll find out how good the Minnesota Twins’ current set of starters are, by throwing them into the fire of an AL pennant race. That seems risky for a team that (supposedly) has World Series aspirations… but here we are.

How does the MN Twins starting rotation look right now…?

Pablo Lopez hasn’t been nearly the same guy we saw last season. His 3.66 ERA from 2023 has ballooned to 5.11, after Wednesday’s outing. Joe Ryan, on the other hand, has been one of the best pitchers in the American League, even if he hasn’t gotten an All-Star invite. Ryan has a 3.29 ERA, 123 ERA+ and a WHIP below 1.

Joe Ryan's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/Oo7KpmgCU8

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024

23-year-old Simeon Woods Richardson is the only other starter on the Twins’ staff with an ERA+ above 100, which is considered average. Bailey Ober has been a lot better of late, and finished Wednesday’s outing with an ERA that is now down to 4.12.

Related: Former Minnesota Twins Slugger is Back on the Open Market

After Ober, the Twins have dead-arm (no more) Chris Paddack. If he struggles again, or injuries surface, Minnesota will turn to David Festa and Louie Varland. Neither guy has been good this season in the majors. Festa has been dominant at Triple-A, while Varland seems to be struggling with his identity as a pitcher.

Minnesota Twins individual starting pitching statistics (as of July 11, 2024)

Pete Maki’s pitching staff lost projected fifth-starter Anthony DeSclafani to season-ending arm surgery before he even took the mound for his Twins debut. He was part of the disaster Jorge Polanco trade.

Meanwhile the bullpen also lost two key contributors in Brock Stewart and Justin Topa, due to injuries. Stewart’s return is anticipated soon, but there won’t be a comeback story for DeSclafani this season. Topa’s return is still up in the air.